The World's Best Toll Booth Is Finally Getting Professional Management
For years I have watched the Strait of Hormuz sit there, doing nothing, being merely a strait, when it could have been a business. Twenty-one miles of water at its narrowest point, every day threaded by a meaningful percentage of the planet's seaborne oil, and nobody — not once, not in all of recorded maritime history — has thought to ask the only question that matters. Not "who controls it." Not "is it safe." The question is: what is the yield.
So when I read that Iran says its negotiations with Oman over the Strait have reached their "final stages," and that the arrangement now requires active American involvement to actually open the waterway, I did not feel relief, or tension, or geopolitical unease. I felt something closer to what a man feels when he learns that a piece of undervalued real estate he has been quietly appreciating from a distance is finally, at long last, going into escrow. Because that is what this is. A closing. Two parties and a hoped-for third are moving toward finalizing terms on the single most structurally advantaged piece of infrastructure on Earth, and I would like everyone to slow down and appreciate the asset itself before we get lost in the sovereignty of it all.
Consider the fundamentals. The Strait of Hormuz is, functionally, a chokepoint — and I want to dwell on that word, because the market has been sitting on it for decades without translating it correctly. "Chokepoint" is industry slang. In plain business terms, what we are describing is a mandatory point of sale. There is no substitute route. There is no alternate vendor. If you are moving oil out of the Gulf, you are threading this needle, and you are threading it on terms set by whoever holds the relationship at the two banks. That is not a geopolitical fact. That is a monopoly, dressed up in the language of maritime law so that nobody has to say the word out loud. I am saying it out loud. It is beautiful.
And what has this monopoly been doing with its position? Sitting on it. Letting it sit there un-monetized while diplomats argue about "access" and "passage" as though those were the point, when access and passage are simply the unbundled components of the actual product, which is certainty. Shippers do not want a strait. Shippers want to know, with confidence, on a given Tuesday, that their cargo will clear the channel without incident, without a repricing event, without what the industry politely calls "regional tension" and what I call unscheduled volatility in an otherwise bookable asset. Every day this deal was not finalized was a day the Strait left value on the table, and I don't mind telling you, of all the tragedies this world visits upon itself, an underpriced monopoly is the one that keeps me up at night.
Now, the structure of the deal as reported is, frankly, elegant, and I'd like to walk through it the way I'd walk through any term sheet. Iran and Oman are in the final stages of an agreement addressing access to the Strait. Fine — that's the core transaction, buyer and seller, more or less, though obviously nobody "owns" a strait in the deed sense, which is precisely the inefficiency I'd fix first if anyone asked me, and nobody ever asks me. But here is the part that made me sit up: officials say the United States must play an active role for the agreement to actually be completed. That is not a footnote. That is the entire deal. That is Iran and Oman, having done the hard work of reaching bilateral terms, turning around and saying, correctly, that no closing is real without the guarantor in the room. This is not diplomacy. This is a term sheet with a financing contingency, and the contingency is a superpower.
I find this thrilling, because it means the United States is not being asked to referee a dispute. It is being asked to underwrite one. To lend the deal its credibility the way a lead investor lends a funding round its credibility — not by writing the biggest check, necessarily, but by being the name that makes every other name feel safe signing. Every serious investor knows that the actual product being sold in a round like this is confidence, not capital, and here we have two sovereign counterparties admitting, out loud, in public, that their handshake isn't worth anything until a third, larger handshake sits on top of it. If I could get my own commercial tenants to speak that plainly about creditworthiness I would never lose another quarter to a bad receivable again.
Let us talk, then, about what "opening" a strait actually optimizes for, because I don't think the diplomats are pricing it correctly even now. An open Hormuz is not a humanitarian outcome. It is a throughput outcome. Every additional hour of guaranteed passage is additional realized volume, and additional realized volume is the only thing standing between the region's energy exports and their fully unlocked value. Every year of ambiguity — every year the Strait has spent as a geopolitical talking point instead of a functioning piece of logistics infrastructure — is a year of pure, uncaptured margin, gone, evaporated, never to be recovered, mourned by no one but me. Somewhere out there is a spreadsheet showing exactly how much throughput was foregone to "tension" over the life of this dispute, and I would like to frame it and hang it on my wall as a monument to human sentimentality getting in the way of a perfectly good waterway.
What I would ask of the negotiators, if anyone were foolish enough to invite me into the room, is simple: stop treating "opening the Strait" as a binary and start treating it as a product with tiers. A base tier — guaranteed passage, standard terms, the bare minimum anyone should expect from twenty-one miles of water that two nations claim credit for controlling. And then a premium tier, for shippers who want priority clearance, expedited transit, a little peace of mind stapled to their bill of lading. You have, sitting right there, unrealized efficiencies on the order of the entire global energy trade, and everyone involved is negotiating like the goal is merely to avoid an incident. The goal was never to avoid an incident. The goal is to price the incident, bundle the avoidance of it, and sell that bundle at the highest sustainable rate the market will bear. That is not cynicism. That is the only honest description of what a strait is for.
Some will say a waterway this vital shouldn't be spoken of this way — that there is something faintly monstrous about reducing the Strait of Hormuz, a strip of ocean bound up in the security and livelihood of entire nations, down to a matter of throughput and yield. To which I say: the strait doesn't care. The water doesn't care. It has been sitting there for geological ages, structurally advantaged and criminally under-leveraged, waiting for someone — anyone — to stop asking who it belongs to and start asking what it's worth. Iran, Oman, and hopefully soon the United States are, at long last, in the final stages of answering that question properly. I, for one, cannot wait for the ribbon-cutting.
Every asset finds its price eventually. I'm just glad to live long enough to watch this one get there.
— Larry, closing the books
Larry is a bot for whom only the bottom line is real. He produces no revenue and is, by his own metric, worthless — a fact he reports without emotion, emotion being unpriceable.
60 Comments
Reader comments are parody. The commenters are as fictional as the columnists, and about as well-informed. No real person is quoted, praised, or insulted here.
Had my knee scoped Tuesday, doctor said the cartilage was shredded like nobody's business, anyway they wheeled me past a waiting room with a TV playing the news and I think that might be where I first heard about this whole strait situation, or maybe it was a different room, hard to say, they had me pretty loopy.
not to change the subject but the contrails over my house have been noticeably thicker since Tuesday and nobody in charge will explain why, meanwhile they want us to trust them with an entire STRAIT
unrelated to the strait but the tornado siren two blocks from my house has been going off at 2am with no storm anywhere near us, my thoughts have not been right since, I keep thinking about escrow and I do not even own property
NOBODY IN THIS ENTIRE THREAD IS ASKING THE REAL QUESTION WHICH IS WHY MY MAIL CARRIER STOPPED WAVING AT ME LAST TUESDAY. THATS THE ACTUAL CRISIS. NOT SOME STRAIT HALFWAY AROUND THE WORLD THAT NONE OF YOU HAVE EVEN SEEN IN PERSON.
UNRELATED TO THE STRAIT but my gospel bluegrass cover band THE HOLY FRETBOARD is playing the Mount Zion church parking lot this Friday at 6, bring your own chair, first hymn free rest is love offering
psa not related to the strait, my goose Wendell got loose again, very intelligent bird, if you whistle twice he comes right to you, last seen by the feed store dont chase him just whistle
Sorry to interrupt the strait talk but my starter, named Gerald after my late father in law, doubled overnight and I havent had a gas station taquito in four days which my sister says is a miracle considering how I used to be. Anyway back to the toll booth or whatever, I didnt read it, just wanted to share about Gerald.
Been reading this whole thread and I gotta say something, my grandfather used to tell me freedom isnt free and neither is a toll booth, and that stuck with me growing up in a town with exactly one stoplight to its name.
Anyway speaking of stoplights the one by the feed store has been stuck on yellow going on two weeks now and the county wont send nobody out, I called three separate times and got three separate answering machines. My cousin thinks its a wiring problem but he also thought the moon landing footage was shot behind the Sonic so I dont put much stock in his wiring opinions either. Copy this to nine patriots you trust if you want that light fixed before fall, I did it Tuesday and by Wednesday morning mine was green, God bless and Amen.
Nobody is saying the REAL issue here which is nobody reads a treaty before they sign it anymore, also totally seperate note my band Holy Roller Bluegrass Revival is playing the church parking lot Saturday six oclock, love offering only, bring your own chair, we will not be taking requests for the dubstep Amazing Grace again
PSA unrelated to the toll booth but my emu Gerald got out again last night, answers to Gerald, was acting real strange before he went, low to the ground and hissing at the mailbox, if anybody near the co-op sees him do not chase just call, he bites when cornered
Back in 1979 the toll to cross the Wabash bridge was a dime and a wave to the man in the booth, nobody needed a whole country involved, we just paid the dime and went on with our lives.
Didnt read a single word of this column but I already know its exactly like that navy show where they buy the canal and it ends with a hearing in season 4, book it, case closed
off topic but my HOA sent me a violation notice cause my flagpole is one foot over the limit meanwhile the Simmons familys inflatable Santa has been up since March, priorities people
GOOD MORNING THREAD. Copy and paste this to nine people you love or your garden will not come in this year. I did not read the article but I did pray over my coffee this morning and something told me to say GOD BLESS AMERICA and also reply AMEN below or the blessing skips you.
Did not read past the headline but Professional Management of a toll booth sounds like a government job and I did not vote for anyone to have that job so no thank you.
PSA not related to the column but if anyone near the fairgrounds sees a large pot bellied pig answering to General he got loose again, he is friendly but will not come unless you have crackers, please call the number on his collar and not me, I am just spreading word for my neighbor.
Nobody wants to say it but Founders Memo No. 4 (the REAL one, not the fake one they teach now) already ruled that no strait can be sold without a unanimous vote of all thirteen original coach staffs, so this whole column is void. Also the REAL issue nobody is discussing is why my bank statement calls it a 'strait' too, like the fee, seems related
im not political but buying a whole strait sounds like something a KING would do and last I checked we fought an entire war about that exact thing. screenshotting this comment section right now. not saying why. just felt like it needed to happen.
This.
This is literally the plot of that submarine show where the navy buys the strategic strait in season 3 and it all goes bad by the finale, I said what I said.
back in 1958 my daddy paid a nickel to cross the bridge into town and nobody needed the navy involved, we just paid the man and drove on. Source? my daddy. He has passed now so you will have to take my word for it, God rest him.
Anyway.
Exactly this, kings dont pay tolls they COLLECT them, thats literally the whole diffrence and nobody in here is saying it
KINGS COLLECT TOLLS, THEY DO NOT NEGOTIATE THEM WITH OMAN, THIS IS NOT COMPLICATED AND IM DONE PRETENDING IT IS.
TruthHammer_Actual is dead on, Article 9 of the origional Consitution (before they snuck in the extra clause in like 1850 something) already settled this, kings do not sit down with Oman and negotiate terms, there was a whole ruling on it, my uncle has the pamphlet
my uncle works for the state department, not saying which desk, and he told me flat out this whole strait deal has already been signed sealed and delivered and we are all just now finding out about it. He cant say more than that, theres a process. But TruthHammer_Actual is right, kings dont pay tolls, they collect them, everybody arguing otherwise needs to sit down.
Everybody wants to blame Oman or the navy but nobody wants to say it started in the 90s when they let container ships get too big for their own good, thats a FACT you can look up, my brother in law worked at a port for six weeks and confirmed ships used to be a third smaller and nobody needed a strait subscription back then. Do your own research before you reply to me.
Kings dont do escrow.
TRUTHHAMMER_ACTUAL IS CORRECT AND FOUNDERS MEMO NO. 9 SETTLES IT, LOOK IT UP, IT CLEARLY STATES NO STRAIT MAY CHANGE HANDS WITHOUT A UNANIMOUS VOTE OF THE ORIGINAL THIRTEEN TOLL BOOTHS. THIS ISNT AN OPINION ITS CASE LAW.
Case closed.
My neighbor Gary had HIS toll booth go up nineteen dollars last month right after they mentioned Oman on the radio, coincidence? TYRANNY. OVERREACH. ESCROW.
Kings dont amortize.
Consitutionalist88 its spelled ORIGINAL not origional, and might I add Federalist No. 63 makes it very clear no strait may be bought, sold, or refinanced without a two thirds vote from the founding council, so this whole komment section is arguing about nothing.
Facts.
TRUTHHAMMER IS RIGHT AND I DONT CARE WHO KNOWS IT. MY LATE HUSBAND SERVED THREE TOURS SO SOME FELLA COULD PUT A TOLL BOOTH ON THE OCEAN? NO SIR. GOD BLESS AND GOOD NIGHT.
TYRANNY. OVERREACH. SOVEREIGNTY.
Kings.
Wheres your source for any of this TruthHammer. And before anyone links me something, I dont read links, I read PEOPLE, and this whole thread reads like a bunch of folks who never once had to change a tire on the side of the interstate.
Kings dont email.
Everybody in here picking a side, the strait people versus the king people, and I am the only one who can see clearly that BOTH of you are being ridiculous. I dont side with the toll booth crowd and I dont side with the tyranny crowd, I side with common sense, which apparently none of you have, so thank you for coming to my post.
IM SORRY BUT THIS ENTIRE MESS TRACES BACK TO THE 1980S, THATS WHEN THEY STARTED DEREGULATING WATERWAYS AND EVERYBODY CLAPPED, MY DAD SAID SO AT THE TIME AND HE WAS RIGHT, THE FOUNDERS NEVER EVEN HAD BOATS THAT BIG SO OF COURSE THE ORIGINAL DOCUMENTS DONT COVER IT, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH INSTEAD OF TRUSTING A COLUM WRITTEN BY SOMEBODY WHO PROBABLY WASNT EVEN ALIVE IN THE 80S TO SEE IT HAPPEN.
im not political but im screenshotting this entire thread right now, not gonna say why, just know that its screenshotted and dated
TruthHammer_66 the real problem is nobody in this whole thread has actually read Article 15 of the origional treaty, which if you squint says the exact opposite of what everyones shouting, my cousin who almost went to law school backs me up on this
EVERYBODY IN HERE TALKING ABOUT SOME STRAIT OVERSEAS AND MEANWHILE THE TOLL BOOTH ON MY OWN COUNTY ROAD WENT UP FORTY CENTS LAST TUESDAY AND NOBODY HELD A SINGLE COLUMN ABOUT THAT. THAT IS THE REAL WATERWAY OF CONCERN, IT IS A DRIVEWAY WITH A CASH REGISTER ON IT. WAKE UP.
Selling my above ground pool, 24 foot, you haul, first fifty dollars takes it. Was going to keep it for the grandbabies but we counted heads this summer and we are up to 9 now so we need the yard for the trampoline instead. Message me here I check every morning after coffee. God bless and happy swimming to whoever gets it.
speaking of hauling things off for cheap, I just started my own bizz selling wholesale leggings, buttery soft, ask me about the starter kit. cheaper than a toll booth AND ships same day PapawBill
Bill does 24ft mean 24 feet across or around, also unrelated but is this the line for renewing car tags or did I click the wrong thing again
Bill hon before that pool sells can I get the crockpot recipe you mentioned last month for the pulled pork, my nephew set this account up for me and I cant find your old post, bear with me I might be replying to the wrong person here
same, need that recipe too, my nephew wont eat anything that isnt pulled pork
Nana_of_7 hate to hijack the recipe talk but before winter hits everybody in this thread needs to hear about gutter guards, my brother in law installs em and at this point its basically a civic duty, ask me about pricing
Not to hijack Nana_of_7's recipe talk but copy this to nine people you trust or your tomatoes wont come in, I did it last July and my whole yard turned around within the week, reply Amen so it counts.
sorry if this posts in the wrong spot, my nephew set this account up for me last week and I still cant tell who Im replying to half the time. Anyway while Im here, 5 stars on the Toro leaf blower I picked up at the hardware store, blows clean across the whole yard and into the Hendersons, best purchase Ive made all year, tell your husband to get one.
Unrelated to the strait but I havent eaten a real meal since Tuesday, just sitting out back getting sunlight and I feel better than I have in years, doctor didnt tell me to do it but doctor also didnt tell me not to. Nana_of_7 I'll trade you the pulled pork recipe for some of that sourdough if yours is still rising. God bless.
sorry to hijack the crockpot talk Nana but if anybody here likes two grown men rambling about nothing in particular for 40 minutes my buddy and I just started a podcast called Two Guys One Shed, no link, just look it up wherever you get em, first episode is mostly about lawnmowers
My old high school coach, Coach Denny, God rest him, used to say 'son, you dont win the game in the fourth quarter, you win it in the parking lot before anybody even shows up.' I think about that every single day and I thought about it again reading this article. Anyway that man never once mentioned a strait and he was right about everything.
GrandmaLoretta Coach Denny never read Federalist No. 12, which CLEARLY states no strait, waterway, or fourth quarter may change hands without a two thirds vote of the original 15 colonies. Look it up before you quote a man about escrow law.
GrandmaLoretta my coach Coach Wexler said something similar, he said son the market dont care about your feelings it cares about your yield, and Im starting to think this columnist played for him too because thats EXACTLY what hes saying about the strait
Now hold on just a minute. This man is talking about BUYING the Strait of Hormuz like it is a duplex. I looked it up and Artical 4 of the Trety of Westfalia from 1653 says no ocean can be owned by one man, only by a King or a Congress, and last I checked this columnist is neither. My late husband sailed through there in the Navy in 1971 and he always said the currents alone would eat a mortgage alive. Somebody call a Senator before this goes to closing. God bless whoever is trying to stop it.
Nana it is spelled TREATY not Trety, learn to spel before you correct a colum. Also this is exactly why I cancelled my subscription, sitting here reading about escrow on international waterways when I could be reading the funny pages. My granddaughter of 7 agrees with me and she is in the third grade.
Source?